Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 8.1 | 11.2% | 91 | 0.79% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 9.6 | 13.8% | 112 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 17.6 | 20.5% | 167 | 0.8% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 13.4 | 16.6% | 135 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 11.0 | 13.5% | 110 | 1.05% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 8.3 | 11.1% | 90 | 0.72% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 5.6 | 7.4% | 60 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 8 | 5.7 | 5.9% | 48 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 101 | 79.3 | 100% | 813 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 17802 | 64374 | 564 | 145 | 748 |
| Nov 19 | 17880 | 64476 | 564 | 145 | 755 |
| Nov 20 | 17958 | 64536 | 564 | 145 | 739 |
| Nov 21 | 17958 | 64570 | 564 | 145 | 643 |
| Nov 22 | 18053 | 64620 | 565 | 146 | 669 |
| Nov 23 | 18158 | 64715 | 567 | 146 | 714 |
| Nov 24 | 18259 | 64835 | 569 | 146 | 813 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 11857 | 37520 | 498 | 126 | 467 |
| Nov 19 | 11930 | 37595 | 500 | 126 | 478 |
| Nov 20 | 11970 | 37631 | 503 | 126 | 460 |
| Nov 21 | 11981 | 37658 | 503 | 126 | 418 |
| Nov 22 | 12049 | 37708 | 506 | 126 | 437 |
| Nov 23 | 12121 | 37747 | 507 | 127 | 485 |
| Nov 24 | 12172 | 37807 | 510 | 127 | 507 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 6.6 | 11.6% | 59 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 6.7 | 15.8% | 80 | 0.95% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 5.1 | 8.9% | 45 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 11.4 | 21.9% | 111 | 1.32% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 6.9 | 13.6% | 69 | 0.89% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.4 | 12.4% | 63 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.6 | 8.3% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 1 | 4.0 | 7.5% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 51 | 51.7 | 100% | 507 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 9222 | 24990 | 416 | 97 | 415 |
| Nov 19 | 9257 | 25029 | 417 | 97 | 399 |
| Nov 20 | 9286 | 25059 | 418 | 97 | 372 |
| Nov 21 | 9309 | 25085 | 418 | 97 | 344 |
| Nov 22 | 9353 | 25100 | 422 | 100 | 356 |
| Nov 23 | 9411 | 25124 | 424 | 101 | 384 |
| Nov 24 | 9453 | 25143 | 424 | 101 | 405 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 3.9 | 8.1% | 33 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 5.4 | 14.3% | 58 | 1.07% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 5.9 | 12.8% | 52 | 1.15% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 7.7 | 17.8% | 72 | 1.33% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.0 | 14.1% | 57 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.0 | 13.1% | 53 | 0.78% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.3 | 9.6% | 39 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 1 | 4.1 | 10.1% | 41 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 42 | 42.3 | 100% | 405 | 0.9% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 18877 | 74583 | 719 | 123 | 800 |
| Nov 19 | 18968 | 74857 | 722 | 123 | 819 |
| Nov 20 | 18990 | 74916 | 722 | 123 | 733 |
| Nov 21 | 19043 | 74958 | 722 | 123 | 725 |
| Nov 22 | 19097 | 75084 | 723 | 123 | 664 |
| Nov 23 | 19198 | 75204 | 722 | 123 | 690 |
| Nov 24 | 19250 | 75320 | 723 | 123 | 646 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 11.1 | 16.6% | 116 | 0.98% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 7.1 | 12.8% | 89 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 9.7 | 14.9% | 104 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 10.7 | 16.8% | 117 | 0.86% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 9.3 | 13.9% | 97 | 0.71% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 7.1 | 11.2% | 78 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.7 | 8.2% | 57 | 0.4% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.4 | 5.6% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 52 | 63.3 | 100% | 697 | 0.59% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 60863 | 434777 | 2015 | 382 | 1610 |
| Nov 19 | 61090 | 435522 | 2025 | 382 | 1685 |
| Nov 20 | 61155 | 436040 | 2027 | 382 | 1571 |
| Nov 21 | 61306 | 436370 | 2028 | 382 | 1562 |
| Nov 22 | 61576 | 436702 | 2030 | 386 | 1653 |
| Nov 23 | 61764 | 437417 | 2035 | 386 | 1801 |
| Nov 24 | 61971 | 438189 | 2038 | 386 | 1932 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 45 | 33.9 | 16.6% | 321 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 23 | 24.6 | 12.4% | 240 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 35 | 29.4 | 16.2% | 313 | 0.3% |
| 30-39 | 36 | 34.9 | 19.4% | 374 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 23.9 | 14.8% | 286 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 19 | 16.3 | 9.5% | 184 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 12.0 | 6.9% | 133 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 8 | 7.1 | 4.2% | 81 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 207 | 182.0 | 100% | 1932 | 0.35% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | 945701 | 3636171 | 47604 | 9816 | 36767 |
| Nov 19 | 950024 | 3643852 | 47892 | 9830 | 36975 |
| Nov 20 | 951658 | 3647980 | 47911 | 9830 | 34381 |
| Nov 21 | 953422 | 3650749 | 47915 | 9831 | 32344 |
| Nov 22 | 958496 | 3654079 | 48115 | 9873 | 33446 |
| Nov 23 | 963229 | 3660393 | 48325 | 9922 | 36481 |
| Nov 24 | 967530 | 3666572 | 48497 | 9940 | 39465 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 537 | 495.4 | 13.3% | 5245 | 0.82% |
| 10-19 | 554 | 528.1 | 14.4% | 5691 | 0.75% |
| 20-29 | 577 | 480.4 | 12.8% | 5050 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 735 | 628.0 | 16.9% | 6686 | 0.88% |
| 40-49 | 558 | 502.9 | 13.6% | 5359 | 0.77% |
| 50-59 | 555 | 459.4 | 12.3% | 4868 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 466 | 349.3 | 9.3% | 3652 | 0.48% |
| 70+ | 323 | 268.9 | 7.3% | 2892 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 4301 | 3714.3 | 100% | 39465 | 0.68% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-12-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9778"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges